Process-based Forward Stratigraphic Modelling for Geothermal Carbonate Reservoir Characterization and Exploration Optimization

Abstract

Geothermal exploration in data-scarce greenfield areas is often hampered by uncertainties in reservoir characterization due to the limitations of conventional geostatistical interpolation. This study applies process-based Forward Stratigraphic Modelling (FSM) to simulate Middle Triassic ooid shoal reservoirs in the North German Basin and Upper Jurassic sponge-microbial bioherms in the South German Molasse Basin. FSM integrates key depositional parameters to generate realistic, process-oriented subsurface models that capture variations in facies distribution, reservoir geometry, and petrophysical heterogeneity. The models reproduce observed lateral and vertical variations in oolitic and biohermal carbonate facies and identify the controlling roles of paleohighs, tidal currents, trade winds, and eustatic changes on reservoir development. Forward models are further applied to simulate analogous deposits in Austria, Switzerland, and Spain, and are integrated into diagenetic models to produce porosity and permeability maps. This approach establishes a semi-automated workflow for exploration in analogous carbonate settings, enabling more reliable pre-drilling predictions. By explicitly incorporating sedimentological and environmental controls, FSM significantly reduces uncertainties in reservoir architecture and properties, providing a robust framework for optimizing geothermal exploration and risk assessment in carbonate reservoirs.