An evaluation of suitable methods to deal with deep uncertainty caused by the energy transition in ship design
J. J. Zwaginga (TU Delft - Ship Design, Production and Operations)
J. F.J. Pruyn (TU Delft - Ship Design, Production and Operations)
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Abstract
The maritime energy transition presents deep uncertainties that are difficult to deal with in the current ship design process. Even though other fields have stressed using adaptive strategies and explorative methods to deal with deep uncertainty, it is rarely included in ship design. Therefore, this paper compares three applicable methods to investigate how such aspects could support the design process. Each method is found to offer specific improvements to decision making, but no separate method meets the established criteria to the desired degree. The methods are found to be complementary, and by developing a combined method for ship design, ships can be better prepared to deal with deep uncertainty.