An evaluation of suitable methods to deal with deep uncertainty caused by the energy transition in ship design

Conference paper (2022)

Authors

J.J. Zwaginga Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering
J.F.J. Pruyn Ship Design, Production and Operations - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering
Research Group
Ship Design, Production and Operations (Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2022 J.J. Zwaginga, J.F.J. Pruyn
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.5957/IMDC-2022-252
Uncertainty Energy Transition Adaptability Ship Design Sustainable Fuels
More Info
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Published Date

2022

Language

English

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Faculty

Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering

Department

Marine and Transport Technology

Research Group

Ship Design, Production and Operations

Abstract

The maritime energy transition presents deep uncertainties that are difficult to deal with in the current ship design process. Even though other fields have stressed using adaptive strategies and explorative methods to deal with deep uncertainty, it is rarely included in ship design. Therefore, this paper compares three applicable methods to investigate how such aspects could support the design process. Each method is found to offer specific improvements to decision making, but no separate method meets the established criteria to the desired degree. The methods are found to be complementary, and by developing a combined method for ship design, ships can be better prepared to deal with deep uncertainty.