A novel emergency decision-making model for collision accidents in the Yangtze River

Journal article (2021)

Authors

Bing Wu The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Wuhan University of Technology
Congcong Zhao Wuhan University of Technology
Tsz Leung Yip The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
D. Jiang Chongqing Jiaotong University, Safety and Security Science - TPM
Research Group
Safety and Security Science (TPM) (TU Delft)
Bayesian network Decision-making Maritime safety Collision accidents
More Info
expand_more

Published Date

2021

Language

English

Reuse Rights

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.

Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Values Technology and Innovation

Research Group

Safety and Security Science

Abstract

Collision accident accounts for the largest proportion among all types of maritime accidents, emergency decision-making is essential to reduce the consequence of such accidents. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian Network based emergency decision-making model for consequence reduction of individual ship-ship collision in the Yangtze River. The kernel of this method is to propose a three-layer decision-making framework, to develop the graphical structure for describing the accident process and to establish the conditional probability tables for the quantitative relationships. The merits of the proposed method include the intuitive representation of accident development, easy to implement, ability to deal with incomplete information and updated information. This proposed method is applied to a typical collision accident in the Yangtze River. Consequently, this paper provides a practical and novel decision-making method for collision accidents.