Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

Journal article (2020)

Authors

Richard Bintanja Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
K. van der Wiel Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
E. C. van der Linden Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Wageningen University & Research
J.M. Reusen Astrodynamics & Space Missions - Aerospace Engineering , Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
L. Bogerd Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Research Group
Astrodynamics & Space Missions (Aerospace Engineering) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2020 Richard Bintanja, K. van der Wiel, E. C. van der Linden, J.M. Reusen, L. Bogerd
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869
More Info
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Published Date

2020

Language

English

Faculty

Aerospace Engineering

Department

Space Engineering

Research Group

Astrodynamics & Space Missions

Abstract

The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation
fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase
markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by
atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts.