Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport
Richard Bintanja (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)
K. van der Wiel (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
E. C. van der Linden (Wageningen University & Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
Jesse Reusen (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), TU Delft - Astrodynamics & Space Missions)
L. Bogerd (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))
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Abstract
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation
fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase
markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by
atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts.
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