Anticipating social acceptance of heating alternatives in Amsterdam
Using value conflicts in an agent-based model
J.L. van Liefland (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Ibo Poel – Mentor (TU Delft - Ethics & Philosophy of Technology)
Niek Mouter – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
T.E. de Wildt – Coach (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
E. Veldman – Coach (AMS Institute)
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Abstract
The municipality of Amsterdam is currently in the middle of a heat transition. The municipalit aims to cut down the use of natural gas for space heating in order to reduce its impact on the natural environment. For the Geerdinkhof neighborhood in Amsterdam South-East, the municipality is planning to implement a district heating system. These systems make use of a collective heat source and rely on underground isolated pipelines to deliver the heat to the end-user. These systems are a significant investment in infrastructure and require adjustments to households before they are suitable for this type of system. A heat transition like the one in Geerdinkhof is a significant challenge, as the heating alternatives that are considered are sometimes met with some resistance from households. Households might not always want to switch to a heating alternative for a variety of reasons. The heat transition therefore becomes a question of social acceptance: are households going to make use of this new system or will they resist the implementation? This master thesis is an exploratory study into reasons for social non-acceptance of a new residential heating system in Geerdinkhof, Amsterdam. Given the long life-time of energy systems and large investments necessary, the municipality of Amsterdam is interested in identifying reasons households might not accept a new heating technology. This thesis makes use of the theory on human values, value change and value conflicts to evaluate how households are affected by a heating alternative in their value fulfillment. In order to simulate the effects different configurations of heating alternatives can have on the human values of households, an agent-based model is constructed. This model is used to anticipate possible value conflicts households could experience in a transition to a new residential heating system. Three recommendations are made to the municipality of Amsterdam in support of social acceptance of a new heating alternative in Geerdinkhof: increase the affordability of the system through subsidies, prioritize household insulation for increased thermal comfort and answer to the Geerdinkhof neighborhood characteristics. The households in this neighborhood might require higher levels of participation, ownership and overall inclusion before they are to socially accept the heating alternative.