Quantifying the Petroleumscape

Using a stock driven Material Flow Analysis model to assess the possibilities for material circularity in the oil industry

Master thesis (2023)

Authors

T. Wubs Technology, Policy and Management

Contributors

Sebastiaan Deetman Universiteit Leiden (supervisor 1)
C.M. Hein History, Form & Aesthetics - Architecture and the Built Environment (supervisor 2)
Faculty
Technology, Policy and Management
Copyright: © 2023 Thije Wubs
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Published Date

08-03-2023

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Abstract

This study sets out to assess the material based consequences of changes in future oil demand. In doing so, this study aims to quantify the physical, industrial petroleumscape. To achieve this, the evolution of the world’s petroleum infrastructures are modelled based on two SSP2 scenarios; a baseline scenario and a 1.5-degree scenario. This study estimates dynamic embedded materials from 1971 towards 2050, as well as the associated in- and outflow. Based on the end-of-life characteristics of the sector, the model assesses the potential for material circularity within the sector. This study finds that storage and pipelines are the driving stages of material use in the petroleum industry, and that steel and concrete are the most used materials. Furthermore, it shows that changes in  oil demand have an immediate effect on the material stock and inflow, but only effect the outflow of material after 2040. To reach material circularity within the petroleum sector a decrease demand is needed to lower the inflow, and end-of-life practices need to be improved, especially the recovery of pipelines after decommissioning and the recycling rate of concrete.