Analysis of the Spatial Extent, Intensity, and Duration of Rainfall Events in the Netherlands
A Statistical Approach Using Radar Data (1998-2023)
A.M. Primavera (TU Delft - Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)
F. Mies – Mentor (TU Delft - Statistics)
Dorien Lugt – Mentor (HKV Lijn in Water)
R. P. Nicolai – Mentor (HKV Lijn in Water)
Cor Kraaikamp – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Applied Probability)
G Jongbloed – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Statistics)
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Abstract
This thesis examines rainfall event characteristics in the Netherlands over a 26-year period (1998–2023) using radar-derived precipitation data. Extreme precipitation is a major contributor to flooding, which impacts human life, infrastructure, and ecosystems. A life-cycle-based tracking approach is employed to analyse rainfall events in terms of spatial extent, duration, and intensity, using 5-minute precipitation data at a 2.4 km resolution.
The study reveals significant increases in the spatial extent and duration of rainfall events, with these trends persisting across most seasons. Intensity trends are more complex: while shorter-duration events show decreasing intensity, a closer look at smaller-scale shorter-duration higher-intensity events indicates an increase in intensity. No significant changes in the shape parameter of extreme event distributions are detected over the study period.
The analysis also finds strong correlations between event duration and area, and between intensity and both duration and dew point temperature, with these relationships evolving over time. This work provides valuable insights into the dynamics of rainfall events in the Netherlands and lays a foundation for future research on refining intensity metrics, distinguishing rainfall types, and improving flood risk assessments.