Probabilistic wake vortex induced accident risk assessment

Abstract

New Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts for departure and landing on busy airports might have a major impact on capacity if the wake vortex induced risks are better understood. The present wake vortex separation standards for the use of a single runway are often limiting capacity too much. To give ATM concept developers feedback with respect to the safety of new ATM concepts, a novel probabilistic methodology is under development for the assessment of wake vortex induced accident risks. The results of the safety assessment give insight in critical ATM design issues and thereby well-founded advice can be given on improvement of the design of the ATM concept. This paper outlines this probabilistic wake vortex induced accident risk assessment methodology and illustrates its initial application to the case of multiple aircraft landing on a single runway.