Modeling oil weathering and transport in sea ice

Abstract

This paper presents a model of oil weathering and transport in sea ice. It contains a model formulation and scenario simulation to test the proposed model. The model formulation is based on state-of-the-art models for individual weathering and transport processes. The approach incorporates the dependency of weathering and transport processes on each other, as well as their simultaneous occurrence after an oil spill in sea ice. The model is calibrated with available experimental data. The experimental data and model prediction show close agreement. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive parameters in the model. The model is useful for contingency planning of a potential oil spill in sea ice. It is suitable for coupling with a level IV fugacity model, to estimate the concentration and persistence of hydrocarbons in air, ice, water and sediments for risk assessment purposes.