How well can machine learning tools for humanitarian forecasting be used in predicting the consequences of forced displacement?
Humanitarian forecasting for displacement: a survey
L.P. Petrova (TU Delft - Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)
M.A.T. Roelvink – Mentor (TU Delft - Multimedia Computing)
Cynthia Liem – Mentor (TU Delft - Multimedia Computing)
Jing Sun – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Pattern Recognition and Bioinformatics)
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Abstract
Displacement is a focal point of humanitarian aid efforts, since it affects millions of people globally. Mitigating the consequences of forced migration is important for reducing suffering and one way of doing so is through predicting displacement to prioritise resources in advance. To achieve this, machine learning can be used for its ability to analyse larger amounts of data and identify latent structures more efficiently than human experts. Through a systematized literature review, this research evaluates thoroughly six machine learning tools: UNHCR's Jetson, DRC's Foresight and AHEAD, the EU's EUMigraTool and EPS-Forecasting, and the agent-based simulation Flee, in order to assess their suitability to that end. The analysis compares these tools across several criteria, including the way they use data, algorithmic characteristics, and operational use cases. Finally, it makes recommendations about what should be considered and how to choose amongst the tools for displacement prediction.