Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defenses under cumulative internal erosion
J.C. Pol (HKV Lijn in Water, TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
W. Kanning (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk, Deltares)
Sebastiaan Nicolaas Jonkman (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Matthijs Kok (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk, HKV Lijn in Water)
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Abstract
Internal erosion is a significant cause of failure in dams, levees and other hydraulic structures. This article studies the time-dependent reliability of such structures under Backward Erosion Piping (BEP), a form of internal erosion in the foundation. First, a physics-based time-dependent piping failure model is presented. Second, a time-variant reliability analysis method is presented which allows to quantify how the reliability evolves over the years due to cumulative pipe growth over multiple flood events. Finally, these models are used to study the importance of time-dependence for reliability estimates of flood defenses in The Netherlands. The findings show that, particularly in coastal areas, incorporating time-dependence significantly reduces the computed failure probability. Reductions vary widely, ranging from a factor of 5 to more than (Formula presented.) depending on flood duration and levee properties. Therefore, reliability estimates for levees can be improved by incorporating time-dependent pipe development in the BEP failure model, and thereby contribute to avoiding unnecessary reinforcements.
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