考虑室内呼吸暴露风险的人群引流控制策略研究

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Abstract

In order to explore impacts of crowd intervention strategies on indoor respiratory exposure risks during major pandemics, a variety of crowd motion scenarios were established in general indoor conditions based on improved pedestrian dynamics model and respiratory infection probability model. Then, multi-agent simulation technology was utilized to simulate impacts of strategies, including protection optimization, pedestrian flow optimization and route optimization, on the exposure risks. The results show that indoor respiratory exposure risks are mainly determined by total pedestrian flow, individuals’ stay length, movement route planning and duration of stay in contaminated areas. The carryover effect will be formed due to pedestrians’ obedience behavior of social distancing, which will further increase exposure time to contaminated areas. The lower pathogen permeability of masks, and the greater space ventilation are, the lower infection probability the crowd will face.