Investment in carbon dioxide capture and storage combined with enhanced water recovery

Abstract

Carbon dioxide capture and storage combined with enhanced deep saline water recovery (CCS-EWR) is a potential approach to mitigate climate change. However, its investment has been a dilemma due to high costs and various uncertainties. In this study, a trinomial tree modelling-based real options approach is constructed to assess the investment in CCS-EWR retrofitting for direct coal liquefaction in China from the investor perspective. In this approach, the uncertainties in CO₂ prices, capital subsidies, water resource fees, the residual lifetime of direct coal liquefaction plants, electricity prices, CO₂ and freshwater transport distance, and the amount of certified emission reductions (CERs) are considered. The results show that the critical CER price for CCS-EWR retrofits is 7.15 Chinese yuan per ton (CNY/ton) higher than that (141.95 CNY/ton) for CCS retrofits. However, the exemption from water resource fees for freshwater recovered from saline water and a subsidy of 26% of the capital cost are sufficient to eliminate the negative impact of enhanced deep saline water recovery (EWR) on the investment economy of CCS-EWR. In addition, when the residual lifetime is less than 14 years, CCS-EWR projects are still unable to achieve profitability, even with flexible management and decision making; therefore, investors should abandon CCS-EWR investments. On the whole, the investment feasibility for CCS-EWR technology is not optimistic despite access to preferential policies from the government. It is necessary to establish a carbon market with a high and stable CER price.