Risk blindness in local perspectives about the Alberta oil sands hinders Canada's decarbonization

Journal article (2021)

Authors

Luis D. Virla University of Sussex, Innolab Space
Dirk Jan van de Ven University of the Basque Country
Jon Sampedro University of the Basque Country
Oscar van Vliet ETH Zürich
Alistair Smith Cambridge Econometrics
Hector Pollitt Cambridge Econometrics
C. Della Santina Innolab Space, Learning & Autonomous Control - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering
Research Group
Learning & Autonomous Control (Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2021 Luis D. Virla, Dirk Jan van de Ven, Jon Sampedro, Oscar van Vliet, Alistair Smith, Hector Pollitt, C. Della Santina
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2021.10.008
Energy transition Ggreenhouse gas emissions Oil sands Risk and uncertainties Risk blindness Stranded assets
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Published Date

2021

Language

English

Faculty

Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering

Department

Cognitive Robotics

Research Group

Learning & Autonomous Control

Abstract

Local perspectives can conflict with national and international climate targets. This study explores three stakeholder (community, provincial, and federal) perspectives on the Alberta oil sands as risks for a sustainability transition in Canada. In an ex-post analysis, we compared outputs from stakeholder consultations and energy-economy models. Our research shows that different local stakeholders groups disregarded some policy risks for the Alberta oil sands and Canadian energy transition. These stakeholders expected the sector to grow, despite increasing environmental penalties and external market pressures. The study revealed that blind-spots on risks, or “risk blindness”, increased as stakeholders became less certain about policy climate goals. We argue that “risk blindness” could be amplified by dominant institutional narratives that contradict scientific research and international climate policy. Strategies that integrate local narratives, considered as marginalized, provide perspectives beyond emission reductions and are essential for meeting climate targets while supporting a just transition.