COVID-19 and its long-term effects on activity participation and travel behaviour

Abstract

This paper discusses possible long-term effects of COVID-19 on activity-travel behaviour. Making use of theories and concepts from economics, psychology, sociology, and geography, this work argues that lasting effects can be expected, and specifically that peak demand among car and public transport users may be lower than if the pandemic would never have happened. The magnitude of such effects at the aggregate level in terms of the total travel time of all inhabitants of a country or state is likely limited. Such lasting effects imply that additional infrastructure extensions to reduce congestion on roads and crowding in public transport might have a lower benefit-cost ratio than would be the case without these impacts. The paper discusses avenues for future research, including work on the role of attitude changes, the formation of new habitual behaviour, new social norms and practices, well-being effects, and the role of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT).