Vast CO₂ release from Australian fires in 2019–2020 constrained by satellite

Abstract

Southeast Australia experienced intensive and geographically extensive wildfires during the 2019–2020 summer season^1,2. The fires released substantial amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere³. However, existing emission estimates based on fire inventories are uncertain⁴, and vary by up to a factor of four for this event. Here we constrain emission estimates with the help of satellite observations of carbon monoxide⁵, an analytical Bayesian inversion⁶ and observed ratios between emitted carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide⁷. We estimate emissions of carbon dioxide to be 715 teragrams (range 517–867) from November 2019 to January 2020. This is more than twice the estimate derived by five different fire inventories^8–12, and broadly consistent with estimates based on a bottom-up bootstrap analysis of this fire episode¹³. Although fires occur regularly in the savannas in northern Australia, the recent episodes were extremely large in scale and intensity, burning unusually large areas of eucalyptus forest in the southeast¹³. The fires were driven partly by climate change^14,15, making better-constrained emission estimates particularly important. This is because the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide may become increasingly dependent on fire-driven climate–carbon feedbacks, as highlighted by this event¹⁶.