Numerical simulation of domino effects of tank fires in terms of time to failure
Yaodong Ou (Guangdong University of Technology)
Jianfeng Zhou (Guangdong University of Technology)
Genserik Reniers (Universiteit Antwerpen, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, TU Delft - Safety and Security Science)
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Abstract
In the fire related domino effect analysis of storage tanks, time to failure is a very important issue, which helps to analyze the time characteristics of accident propagation in a certain area, and is also an important parameter for some methods to determine the failure probability of target tanks. This study carries out a numerical simulation to analyze the time to failure of tanks under fire with respect to domino effects, taking the time at which the tank wall stress exceeds the yield strength as the failure time of the corresponding tank. Two scenarios of fire escalation in domino effects are studied, and the time to failure under the synergistic effect of thermal radiations is analyzed. More importantly, this study performs the analysis of time to failure of the target tank considering heat radiation accumulation, that is, under the circumstance of successive multiple tank fires, the fire thermal radiations from multiple fires do not simultaneously influence the target storage tank, but they have an accumulation effect in the target tank, and this way influence the time to failure of the tank.
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File under embargo until 25-02-2026