Reactive Approaches of Probability Update Based on Bayesian Methods

Abstract

Dynamic safety analysis in chemical and process facilities is necessary to prevent unwanted events that may cause catastrophic accidents. Probability updating and adapting of stochastic events and dynamic processes, which evolve over time, are the key to dynamic safety analysis. Conventional risk assessment techniques, such as fault tree, event tree, and bow-tie analyses, have long been used for effective safety analysis of process plants; however, owing to their static characteristics, their application to dynamic safety analysis has been relatively limited. Bayesian methods, such as hierarchical Bayesian analysis and Bayesian network, are effective techniques with ample potential for application in dynamic safety analysis. This chapter is aimed at presenting the state-of-the-art application of Bayesian analysis and especially the Bayesian network method in dynamic safety analysis of process systems.