Decision making under deep uncertainty for pandemic policy planning

Journal Article (2023)
Author(s)

Sophie Hadjisotiriou (Radboud University Medical Center)

Vincent Marchau (Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen)

WE Walker (TU Delft - Air Transport & Operations)

Marcel Olde Rikkert (Radboud University Medical Center)

Research Group
Transport and Logistics
Copyright
© 2023 Sophie Hadjisotiriou, V.A.W.J. Marchau, W.E. Walker, Marcel Olde Rikkert
DOI related publication
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2023.104831
More Info
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Publication Year
2023
Language
English
Copyright
© 2023 Sophie Hadjisotiriou, V.A.W.J. Marchau, W.E. Walker, Marcel Olde Rikkert
Research Group
Transport and Logistics
Volume number
133
Reuse Rights

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Abstract

Policymakers around the world were generally unprepared for the global COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the virus has led to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Theoretically, the number of cases and deaths did not have to happen (as demonstrated by the results in a few countries). In this pandemic, as in other great disasters, policymakers are confronted with what policy analysts call Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU). Deep uncertainty requires policies that are not based on 'predict and act' but on ‘prepare, monitor, and adapt’, enabling policy adaptations over time as events occur and knowledge is gained. We discuss the potential of a DMDU-approach for pandemic decisionmaking.