The governance paradox: why polycentric systems fail to mitigate urban vulnerability in the global south

Abstract

The global reliance on Polycentric Governance (PCG) for climate adaptation in rapidly urbanizing coastal cities frequently fails to achieve transformative outcomes, a paradox this research addresses by identifying institutional friction as the core impediment. Using a mixed-methods approach in Semarang, Indonesia, we combined Q-methodology with Cellular Automata–Markov chain (CA-Markov) LULC modeling to relate institutional dynamics to physical land-use outcomes. The Q-methodology analysis of 58 key stakeholders revealed a deep institutional rift characterized by an Adaptation Tempo Dilemma and Trust Deficit, with stakeholders divided between advocates of transformative change and a prevailing preference for incremental adaptation. In parallel, the CA-Markov modeling documented the physical trajectory associated with this governance context: impervious surface areas are projected to increase dramatically from 39% in 2009 to over 51% by 2039, substantially accelerating the city’s vulnerability to flooding in high-risk zones. We conclude that, in the context of the Urban Global South, institutional trust-building and policy coherence are not merely desirable but necessary pre-emptive conditions for PCG to catalyze transformative climate adaptation successfully.