Risk analysis of earth-rock dam breach based on dynamic Bayesian network

Abstract

Despite the fact that the Bayesian network has great advantages in logical reasoning and calculation compared with the other traditional risk analysis methods, there are still obvious shortcomings in the study of dynamic risk. The risk factors of the earth-rock dam breach are complex, which vary with time during the operation period. Static risk analysis, limited to a specific period of time, cannot meet the needs of comprehensive assessment and early warning. By introducing time factors, a dynamic Bayesian network model was established to study the dynamic characteristics of dam-breach probability. Combined with the calculation of the conditional probability of nodes based on the Leaky Noisy-Or gate extended model, the reasoning results of Bayesian networks were modified by updating the data of different time nodes. Taking an earth-rock dam as an example, the results show that it has less possibility to breach and keep stable along the time axis. Moreover, the factors with vulnerability and instability were found effective, which could provide guidance for dam risk management.