Mental Models of the Environment Particular to Weak Signal Analysis

Abstract

The effect of ex-ante information such as emerging technologies on the interpretive process is rarely investigated, although this type of information is considered to be the basis for strategic decision-making and requires a different process due to its ill-defined nature.

This paper explores the ways outperforming managers perceive emerging change in their environment. Top managers were interviewed to determine the role of signals of emerging change in assessments of their company’s environment. The open interviews were analyzed using grounded theory. Contrary to scientific models of the market environment, as suggested in the strategic management literature, the results illustrate that top managers do not use compartmentalized models. Instead, the interviewees seem to acknowledge that their environment is highly uncertain and cannot be modeled as a mutually exclusive and complete set of compartments. As a result, they must remain open to new signals from various directions and sources. The explorative study is based on 13 interviews and serves as a starting point for further research into managerial perceptions of signals of emerging change. The findings have managerial utility for the early detection of emerging change in the company environment, thus allowing time to protect against, prepare for, or profit from change. The article’s scientific value is created by the approach which allows to infer how managers perceive their company’s environment, rather than choosing a usual method that almost necessarily leads towards compartmentalized models. It also raises theoretical questions about the role of cognition in complexity theory and its application in field studies.