A regionalisation approach for rainfall based on extremal dependence
K.R. Saunders (TU Delft - Statistics)
A. G. Stephenson (Oceans and Atmosphere)
D. J. Karoly (Oceans and Atmosphere, University of Melbourne)
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Abstract
To mitigate the risk posed by extreme rainfall events, we require statistical models that reliably capture extremes in continuous space with dependence. However, assuming a stationary dependence structure in such models is often erroneous, particularly over large geographical domains. Furthermore, there are limitations on the ability to fit existing models, such as max-stable processes, to a large number of locations. To address these modelling challenges, we present a regionalisation method that partitions stations into regions of similar extremal dependence using clustering. To demonstrate our regionalisation approach, we consider a study region of Australia and discuss the results with respect to known climate and topographic features. To visualise and evaluate the effectiveness of the partitioning, we fit max-stable models to each of the regions. This work serves as a prelude to how one might consider undertaking a project where spatial dependence is non-stationary and is modelled on a large geographical scale.
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