Pantropical tree rings show small effects of drought on stem growth
Pieter A. Zuidema (Wageningen University & Research)
Peter Groenendijk (University of Campinas)
Mizanur Rahman (Shahjalal Univ. of Science and Technology)
Valerie Trouet (Belgian Climate Centre, University of Arizona)
Abrham Abiyu (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF))
Rodolfo Acuña-Soto (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)
Eduardo Adenesky-Filho (Universidade Regional de Blumenau)
Raquel Alfaro-Sánchez (Northern Forestry Centre, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)
Tommy Wils (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Fontys Hogeschool)
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Abstract
Increasing drought pressure under anthropogenic climate change may jeopardize the potential of tropical forests to capture carbon in woody biomass and act as a long-term carbon dioxide sink. To evaluate this risk, we assessed drought impacts in 483 tree-ring chronologies from across the tropics and found an overall modest stem growth decline (2.5% with a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 2.7%) during the 10% driest years since 1930. Stem growth declines exceeded 10% in 25% of cases and were larger at hotter and drier sites and for gymnosperms compared with angiosperms. Growth declines generally did not outlast drought years and were partially mitigated by growth stimulation in wet years. Thus, pantropical forest carbon sequestration through stem growth has hitherto shown drought resilience that may, however, diminish under future climate change.