Exploring the emergence of a biojet fuel supply chain in Brazil
An agent-based modeling approach
Jorge Moncada Escudero (Universiteit Utrecht, TU Delft - Energy and Industry)
Judith A. Verstegen (University of Münster)
J. Posada Duque (TU Delft - BT/Biotechnology and Society)
M Junginger (Universiteit Utrecht)
Zofia Lukszo (TU Delft - Energy and Industry)
André Faaij (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen)
Margot Weijnen (TU Delft - Energy and Industry)
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Abstract
The aviation industry accounts for more than 2% of global CO
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emissions. Biojet fuel is expected to make an essential contribution to the decarbonization of the aviation sector. Brazil is seen as a key player in developing sustainable aviation biofuels owing to its long-standing experience with biofuels. Nevertheless, a clear understanding of what policies may be conducive to the emergence of a biojet fuel supply chain is lacking. We extended a spatially explicit agent-based model to explore the emergence of a biojet fuel supply chain from the existing sugarcane–ethanol supply chain. The model accounts for new policies (feed-in tariff and capital investment subsidy) and new considerations into the decision making about production and investment in processing capacity. We found that in a tax-free gasoline regime, a feed-in tariff above 3 R$/L stimulates the production of biojet fuel. At higher levels of gasoline taxation (i.e., 2.46 R$/L), however, any feed-in tariff is insufficient to ensure the production of biojet fuel. Thus, at these levels of gasoline taxation, it is needed to introduce regulations on the production of biojet fuel to ensure its production. Given the current debate about the future direction of the biofuel policy in Brazil, we recommend further research into the effect of market mechanisms based on greenhouse gas emissions on the emergence of a Brazilian biojet fuel supply chain.
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