How to keep it adequate
A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation
Christian Troost (University of Hohenheim)
Robert Huber (ETH Zürich)
Andrew R. Bell (Boston University)
Hedwig van Delden (Research Institute for Knowledge Systems)
Tatiana Filatova (TU Delft - Policy Analysis, TU Delft - Multi Actor Systems)
Quang Bao Le (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas )
Melvin Lippe (Thünen Institute of Forestry)
Leila Niamir (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
J. Gareth Polhill (The James Hutton Institute)
Zhanli Sun (Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies)
Thomas Berger (University of Hohenheim)
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Abstract
There has so far been no shared understanding of validity in agent-based simulation. We here conceptualise validation as systematically substantiating the premises on which conclusions from simulation analysis for a particular modelling context are built. Given such a systematic perspective, validity of agent-based models cannot be ensured if validation is merely understood as an isolated step in the modelling process. Rather, valid conclusions from simulation analysis require context-adequate method choices at all steps of the simulation analysis including model construction, model and parameter inference, uncertainty analysis and simulation. We present a twelve-step protocol to highlight the (often hidden) premises for methodological choices and their link to the modelling context. It is designed to aid modelers in understanding their context and in choosing and documenting context-adequate and mutually consistent methods throughout the modelling process. Its purpose is to assist reviewers and the community as a whole in assessing and discussing context-adequacy.
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