Income Inequality and Climate Change
A Theory-Based System Dynamics Analysis for Canada
L. Youssifou (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Servaas Storm – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Economics of Technology and Innovation)
Floortje D'Hont – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Policy Analysis)
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Abstract
This thesis explores the relationship between income inequality and carbon emissions, focusing on how changes in income distribution influence consumption patterns, and subsequently affect GDP and emissions over time. A theory-based System Dynamics (SD) modelling approach is used to examine these macroeconomic and environmental dynamics in the Canadian context. This research builds on the LowGrow SFC model as developed by Jackson and Victor (2019), which simulates the Canadian economy from 2012 to 2073 exploring multiple post-growth scenarios. A sub-model that incorporates income inequality as an input variable is added to the original LowGrow SFC model. The results show that more equal income distributions lead to higher total consumption due to increased aggregate demand. However, counterintuitively, these same scenarios produce lower GDP and EBI values. This occurs because rising consumption leads to a decline in both government spending and business investment, ultimately reducing GDP. Because EBI is closely linked to GDP in the model, it follows a similar trajectory. These results challenge the equity-pollution dilemma and suggest that improving income equality may be compatible with achieving climate goals. This insight offers a hopeful and compelling argument for integrating social equity with environmental sustainability in future policy design.