Framework for the seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete structures considering climate change effects

Abstract

Reinforced concrete structures (RCSs) face increasing vulnerability due to aging, deterioration, and climate change, compounded by seismic events. This paper proposes a framework that integrates time-dependent deterioration mechanisms, climate projections, and seismic vulnerability analyses. The methodology develops deterioration profiles using site-specific data while employing Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) to evaluate seismic risks. Climate scenarios from the IPCC address non-stationary climate impacts, such as accelerated corrosion. This research represents a first step toward defining a systematic process for assessing these combined effects. The proposed framework addresses critical gaps in traditional vulnerability assessments and contributes to improving the resilience of aging infrastructure under combined environmental and seismic hazards.