New Guidelines for the Quality Control of Risk Analyses of Critical Hydraulic Structures

Conference paper (2023)

Authors

A.M.R. Bakker Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG
Tycho Busnach Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management
L.F. Mooyaart Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG
L. Van Gijzen Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG , Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management
Research Group
Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2023 A.M.R. Bakker, Tycho Busnach, L.F. Mooyaart, L. Van Gijzen
Risk analysis Model validation Hydraulic structures Storm surge barriers Model evaluation Model quality assessment
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Published Date

2023

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk

Abstract

The efficacy of risk models and risk analyses critically hinges on sufficient model evaluation. Nevertheless, the usefulness for the intended purpose is rarely systematically assessed. Poor or even lacking model evaluation of the applied risk models and analyses also troubles the asset management of storm surge barriers in the Netherlands. In practice, obvious flaws, missing failure modes and use that deviates from the original purpose regularly lead to unpleasant surprises, unnecessary costs and avoidable risks.

Here, we introduce new guidelines for the quality control during the development, testing, maintenance and usage of risk analyses of critical hydraulic structures.

First responses among stakeholders are rather positive since the guidelines help modelers and analysts to better understand critics and independent reviewers to structure their comments. However, the efficacy of the guidelines itself also need rigorous evaluation in the coming years. This may prove challenging as the application of the guidelines may also reveal that the organizations that operation the storm surge barriers are currently insufficiently equipped for the rigorous quality control of risk models and risk analyses.

Files

P429.pdf
(.pdf | 0.157 Mb)