Restoration curves to estimate the downtime of critical infrastructures

Abstract

Modeling the performance of critical infrastructures and their interdependencies is an important task in the resilience assessment. In this paper, restoration curves for four critical lifelines (power, water, gas, telecommunication, and transportation) have been developed using a probabilistic approach. To do that, a large database on infrastructure downtime has been collected for most of the earthquakes that occurred in the past century. The restoration curves have been grouped based on the earthquake magnitude and the level of development of the country in which the earthquake occurred. The curves are presented in terms of probability of recovery and time; the longer is the time after the disaster, the higher is the probability of the infrastructure to recover its functions.