A future fuel alternative for Fugro vessels

Abstract

To mitigate global warming, worldwide CO2-emissions have to be cut. Similarly, the shipping industry has to drastically decrease it's emissions. Rules and regulation on emissions are becoming more stringent. Moreover, the public and clients are demanding less pollution from ship operators. While many shipping operators are looking at a suited fuel alternative, no consensus has been reached on the best alternative to entirely dispose of harmful emissions from shipping in the long-term. Fugro is one of the ship operators interested in entirely bringing down the emissions of their vessels that are built from 2030 onwards and therefore this research is conducted. This thesis will research how and if Fugro can achieve the IMO target of 70 percent CO2 reduction in 2050, by deploying net zero-emission fuels in Fugro vessels as of 2030. An evaluation will be done to assess which alternative fuels are feasible and most suitable, based on current technologies and considering future scenarios around technology. The research will approach this problem by firstly conducting an extensive literature research into alternative fuels and Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis methods. Thereafter the Fugro fleet, potential future vessel developments, future scenarios and alternative fuels are researched to set up a technical framework for this case problem specifically. With this technical framework in place, the method itself is conducted. This is done in two ways. First, by conducting a qualitative approach using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, also involving stakeholders from Fugro and the industry. Second, by carrying out a case application of the four best alternatives on a representative Fugro vessel. This approach, including a qualitative approach extended with a quantitative one results in a substantiated advise. Both methods complement each other on points where the other falls short. The AHP includes stakeholders and takes into account criteria that are difficult to quantify. The application approach tests the feasibility of the proposed alternatives and tests the potentially subjective or intuitive outcome of the AHP method. With methanol scoring well in both approaches, the conclusion of this research is that methanol is the advised alternative fuel for future Fugro vessels. Liquid hydrogen is the highest rated fuel alternative from the AHP. The application example shows that this fuel isn't able to comply with the required Fugro operability however. Contrary to that, ammonia is a highly rated alternative in literature and is also scoring well in the application part of this thesis, but is not rated as a suitable alternative by stakeholders in the AHP. The last considered alternative in both parts of the method is synthetic diesel, which is comparable to MDO. This fuel scores well in both methods but is considered to remain too expensive to become a viable alternative in the coming ten years. In this thesis, estimates of different fuel options are presented and some design concepts and considerations on the different alternative fuel applications are given. The next step for Fugro would be to work out a methanol concept, by going through the design spiral more than once and work out the design choices and challenges this fuel brings. With alternative fuels being more expensive than MDO, this thesis pointed out that the economic speed will change when using alternative fuels, which is another point that requires more research. While the AHP proved to be a suitable way to score fuel alternatives while including stakeholders and assessing criteria qualitatively, it also pointed out that it is difficult to solely base an alternative fuel advise on this method. Potentially, the AHP results would improve when the questionnaire is simplified by reducing the amount of considered criteria.