Risk assessment of large-scale winter sports sites in the context of a natural disaster

Review (2022)

Authors

Jiansong Wu China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Yuxuan Xing China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Yiping Bai China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)
Xiaofeng Hu People’s Public Security University of China
S. Yuan Safety and Security Science - TPM
Research Group
Safety and Security Science (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2022 Jiansong Wu, Yuxuan Xing, Yiping Bai, Xiaofeng Hu, S. Yuan
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.03.006
Bayesian network Risk assessment Natural disaster Fuzzy logic Domino disaster chain Large-scale sports sites
More Info
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Published Date

2022

Language

English

Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Values Technology and Innovation

Research Group

Safety and Security Science

Abstract

Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern. However, previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure. With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters, the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events, such as large-scale winter sports sites, cannot be ignored. In this study, a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model (NAEA model) is proposed. Based on the results of the NAEA model, a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established. Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis, it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites. Simultaneously, improving the early warning capability, reliability of electrical equipment, and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents. In addition, an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.