System Transitions through Path Creation - A Company Perspective
F.D.B. van Dongen (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
J.R. Ortt – Mentor (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Z. Lukszo – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
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Abstract
Rotterdam’s petrochemical cluster illustrates how deeply integrated oil-and-gas systems can stall decarbonisation despite mounting policy pressure. Combining the Technology Innovation System framework with Path Theorem, this thesis develops an analytical lens that is both diagnostic and dynamic. A qualitative case study reveals an incumbent Oil & Gas TIS that is technologically mature yet economically eroding, and an emergent low-carbon-hydrogen TIS that remains fragile amid volatile regulations and missing backbone infrastructure. The cluster is caught in a “paradoxical interdependence”: firms are physically interconnected but strategically isolated, reinforcing lock-ins such as the Green Fling, Incrementalism and Solitariness traps. Two path-creation interventions are proposed. Cluster Billboarding to attract like-minded entrants and Industry-Authored Roadmaps to align incumbent visions. Both target the Network Formation & Coordination building block to unlock self-reinforcing, hydrogen-oriented trajectories. Findings emphasize that organisational collaboration and a stable regulatory climate, more than technology itself, dictate the speed of transition.