Modeling the Morphodynamics of Coastal Responses to Extreme Events
What Shape Are We In?
Christopher R. Sherwood (U.S. Geological Survey-Climateand Land Use Change Branch (USGS))
Ap Van Dongeren (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Deltares)
James Doyle (US Naval Research Laboratory)
Christie A. Hegermiller (US Geological Survey)
Tian-Jian Hsu (University of Delaware)
Tarandeep S. Kalra (Integrated Statistics (contracted to the US Geological Survey))
Maitane Olabarrieta (University of Florida)
Allison M. Penko (NASA Stennis Space Center)
Yashar Rafati (University of Delaware)
Dano Roelvink (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Deltares)
Marlies van der Lugt (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Deltares)
Jay Veeramony (NASA Stennis Space Center)
John C Warner (US Geological Survey)
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Abstract
This review focuses on recent advances in process-based numerical models of the impact of extreme storms on sandy coasts. Driven by larger-scale models of meteorology and hydrodynamics, these models simulate morphodynamics across the Sallenger storm-impact scale, including swash,collision, overwash, and inundation. Models are becoming both wider (as more processes are added) and deeper (as detailed physics replaces earlier parameterizations). Algorithms for wave-induced flows and sediment transport under shoaling waves are among the recent developments. Community and open-source models have become the norm. Observations of initial conditions (topography, land cover, and sediment characteristics) have become more detailed, and improvements in tropical cyclone and wave models provide forcing (winds, waves, surge, and upland flow) that is better resolved and more accurate, yielding commensurate improvements in model skill. We foresee that future storm-impact models will increasingly resolve individual waves, apply data assimilation, and be used in ensemble modeling modes to predict uncertainties.