A Survey of Current Operations-Ready Thermospheric Density Models for Drag Modeling in LEO Operations
Shaylah Mutschler (Space Environment Technologies)
Marcin Pilinski (University of Colorado - Boulder)
Sean Bruinsma (CNES Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales)
Eric Sutton (University of Colorado - Boulder)
W. Kent Tobiska (Space Environment Technologies)
Delores Knipp (University of Colorado - Boulder)
Tzu Wei Fang (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Steve Casali (Omitron Inc.)
Vishnuu Mallik (Planet Labs Inc.)
Brandon DiLorenzo (Space Environment Technologies)
Christian Siemes (TU Delft - Astrodynamics & Space Missions)
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Abstract
In Low Earth Orbit (LEO), atmospheric drag is the largest contributor to trajectory prediction error. The current thermospheric density model used by the Combined Space Operations Center (CSpOC) in operations is the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM). Since HASDM is not available for use outside of the US Government, satellite operators are left to determine what publicly available, open-source density model they should integrate into their internal operational software. Given the ever more challenging nature of operations in LEO, it is imperative for satellite operators to update legacy density models to a state-of-the-art density model to provide improved trajectory predictions for collision risk assessment and vital day-to-day operational decisions. This article outlines four operations-ready thermospheric density models, describing their performance, computation time, required space weather inputs, and notes for implementation. Operations-ready models include the Drag Temperature Model (DTM), the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 (JB2008) model, the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar 2.0 (NRLMSIS 2.0) model, and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). US Government operational density models, HASDM and the Whole Atmosphere Model and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (WAM-IPE) model, are included for comparison. Models are evaluated against global HASDM density and local GRACE-FO satellite accelerometer densities and Swarm mission densities. Additionally, comparisons between HASDM and WAM-IPE nowcast and forecast density are revealed for the first time publicly.
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