Feasibility and Societal Impact of Replacing Short-Haul Flights from Schiphol with International Rail
C.J.A.M. van Kuppeveld (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Niek Mouter – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
Wijnand Veeneman – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Organisation & Governance)
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Abstract
Amsterdam Schiphol Airport aims to transform into a multimodal transport hub, addressing environmental pressures and airport capacity constraints by promoting a shift from short-haul flights to direct international rail services. Such a strategy could reduce greenhouse gas emissions, optimize airport capacity and improve regional accessibility. While other European airports increasingly integrate air and rail operations, Schiphol remains largely air-focused. The Dutch aviation sector faces ambitious CO₂ reduction targets, requiring a 30% cut by 2030. This study investigates feasible improvements to direct rail connections from Schiphol to six destinations: Brussels, Paris, London, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt and Berlin, assessing infrastructure, operational, institutional, regulatory and financial requirements, and evaluating societal impacts through a social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA). Two promising alternatives emerge: Eurostar Expansion on the Amsterdam-London route, increasing daily services via the new UK terminal and a Dual Service Model on the Amsterdam-Berlin corridor with hourly ICE L trains and reduced travel times.
Barrier analysis identifies regulatory, operational, governance and investment challenges, with cross-border staffing and regulatory constraints as the most urgent. SCBA results show substantial societal benefits, including reductions of over 240.000 short-haul flights, 39 million fewer air passengers, external cost savings of up to €2,5 billion and an increase of 66 million rail passengers. Financial feasibility is mixed: Eurostar Expansion reaches positive net present value under a pessimistic scenario, while the Dual Service Model remains costly. The study concludes that substituting short-haul flights with international rail is feasible and socially advantageous by 2030, even with limited infrastructure investment. Success depends on integrated governance, cross-border coordination and targeted policy interventions, while phased implementation and further research can support sustainable and inclusive transport strategies.