Orbital decay of objects in Low Earth orbit
Analysing the effect of the aerodynamic characteristics and initial state uncertainty on orbital decay
L.M. Peña Arambarri (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering)
Erwin Mooij – Mentor (TU Delft - Astrodynamics & Space Missions)
C. Siemes – Mentor (TU Delft - Astrodynamics & Space Missions)
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Abstract
This thesis aims to improve the accuracy of re-entry epoch prediction for decaying satellites in orbit. It explores the impact of aerodynamic coefficients, rotational dynamics, and initial state uncertainties on re-entry prediction. By using SPARTA software, the study generates aerodynamic coefficients and considers factors such as object shape, attitude, atmospheric density, and relative velocity. The findings emphasize the importance of precise aerodynamic modelling, particularly the inclusion of lift force for specific shapes like Starlink satellites. Rotational dynamics reduce the range of re-entry epoch predictions by narrowing the average drag coefficient. Initial state uncertainties have a limited effect compared to the average drag coefficient. The research also evaluates the re-entry prediction for a Starlink satellite, aligning closely with existing models after applying a correction factor. Recommendations include sensitivity analyses and investigating different satellite shapes to enhance prediction capabilities. These findings ensure more reliable and accurate re-entry epoch predictions for impact analysis.