Towards A Flood Risk Assessment On A Reef-lined Coastline

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Abstract

The assessment of coastal flood risk on a reef-lined coastline presents several challenges. From the probabilistic side, we need to consider all possible events that could occur in the system, taking into account the different contributions of waves, storm surges, and tides that contribute to the total water level. To estimate reliable flood extents, we need to accurately model the complex wave processes that occur across the reef. To explore the multivariate nature of coastal flooding, we rely on a climate emulator that accounts for climate variability and simulates time series of all the variables involved. Due to the computational constraints to numerically simulate thousands of events, we explore the feasibility of using a recently developed tool, the HyCreWW (Hybrid Coral Reef Wave and Water level) meta-model to estimate wave run-up and flooding extents. Limitation of a 1D assessment are analyzed and results compared with 2D modeling.