In Search For A Place In World Order
Dynamic Modelling of National Power Using A Systems Approach
R. ten Bhömer (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
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Abstract
Difficulties arise in the making of predictions, since ideas and views on the future are often based on current conditions and, with only minor adjustments, it is simply expected that those conditions will continue into the future. With the goal of supporting experts in their scenario analysis this thesis is part of a pilot between the analysis network on national security (Analistennetwerk Nationale Veiligheid) of the Netherlands and the Technical University Delft. It explores if system dynamics is an useful approach in the modelling and simulation of changes in state power dynamics. It does so by researching literature on national power and through the analysis multi-scale geopolitical model to simulate over 217 countries. Exploratory modelling and analysis has been performed on the power dynamics of The United States, China, and Russia. This thesis concludes that system dynamics is an appropriate approach in the modelling and simulation of geopolitics and shifts in power dynamics. But, that uncertainties in the relationships between variables, missing data, and the modelling choices made to overcome these issues make it very difficult to built a good causal model to support expert scenario analysis.