The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments—Lessons from low-carbon transitions

Journal article (2020)

Authors

Oscar van Vliet ETH Zürich
Susanne Hanger-Kopp ETH Zürich, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
A. Nikas National Technical University of Athens
Eise Spijker Joint Implementation Network (JIN)
Henrik Carlsen Stockholm Environment Institute US
H. Doukas National Technical University of Athens
C. Della Santina ETH Zürich, Learning & Autonomous Control - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering
Research Group
Learning & Autonomous Control (Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2020 Oscar van Vliet, Susanne Hanger-Kopp, Alexandros Nikas, Eise Spijker, Henrik Carlsen, Haris Doukas, C. Della Santina
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2020.04.001
Modelling Stakeholders Risk assessment Climate policy Integrated assessment models Low-carbon transitions
More Info
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Published Date

2020

Language

English

Faculty

Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering

Department

Cognitive Robotics

Research Group

Learning & Autonomous Control

Abstract

Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition.