The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments—Lessons from low-carbon transitions
Oscar van Vliet (ETH Zürich)
Susanne Hanger-Kopp (ETH Zürich, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Alexandros Nikas (National Technical University of Athens)
Eise Spijker (Joint Implementation Network (JIN))
Henrik Carlsen (Stockholm Environment Institute US)
Haris Doukas (National Technical University of Athens)
Jenny Lieu (ETH Zürich, TU Delft - Mechanical Engineering)
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Abstract
Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition.
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