Model-based approaches for supporting equitable delta adaptation planning

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are threatening the livelihood of people in the world’s deltas. To secure a sustainable future, alternative courses of actions should be well prepared in advance, and their efficacy should be evaluated against future uncertainties. The assessment of alternative adaptation plans often takes an aggregate perspective, where the projected outcomes are aggregated across all people and over the entire planning horizon. In reality, plans which are optimal at the aggregate level, may benefit some people while harming others. This is because climate change impacts and socio-economic pressures vary in space and time, and they affect people differently depending on one’s adaptive capacity. Therefore, adaptation can exacerbate inequality.