Probabilistic approaches for the prediction of forest fire danger using optical and thermal satellite data

Abstract

Operational forest fire danger rating systems uses meteorological variables to estimate vegetation conditions and predict fire occurrence and spread. This study introduces a novel approach to relate live fuel conditions retrieved from MODIS optical and thermal bands with fire behaviour and the probability of extreme events. The analysis focusses on land surface temperature (LST) anomaly and on the perpendicular moisture index (PMI) to evaluate fire characteristics like burned area, duration, and rate of spread. Results show that PMI is a strong covariate of burned area and rate of spread but not fire duration, while LST anomaly is a strong covariate of burned area and fire duration, and a weak covariate of rate of spread. Comparing these findings with the Canadian forest fire weather index (FWI) system components reveals that LST anomaly and PMI are effective predictors of fire characteristics, potentially enhancing fire danger models and preparedness strategies.