Developing an ABM-CGE coupled model for researching climate-induced migration behaviour within the European Union
E.N. van Dijk (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Natalie van der Van Der Wal – Mentor (TU Delft - System Engineering)
Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Policy Analysis)
Tatiana Filatova – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Policy Analysis)
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Abstract
Climate-induced migration modelling is a popular way of assessing changes in population flows due to climate shocks. Although many models prove that modelling gives compelling insights into migration systems, there is a lack of models that capture micro-behavioural aspects while maintaining holistic realism. This thesis fills this gap by combining Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) data with an Agent-Based Model (ABM) for micro-behaviour modelling. The migration decisions are bound by three migration theories: the New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM), pushpull theory and Foresight’s main factors of migration. Results show that the model can capture behavioural micro-decision making. Holistically, the model can capture migration flows, although accuracy is limited, mainly due to a lack of longitudinal household-survey data and datasets on intertwined social connections. Finally, the model shows that micro-macro coupled climate-induced migration methodologies can provide new and valuable insights within academics, policy design and policy validation.