Predicting the effects of CO2 emission to analyze container flows using an extended World Container Model

Abstract

At present, the problem of the greenhouse effect pushes people to pay more attention to the effects of emission. Carbon dioxide is one of the main greenhouse gases. And freight transportation represents the primary contributor of CO2 emission compared to other sectors. Thus, the emission of container transport, which is the main method of transportation all over the world, is the main research object in this thesis. The impact of CO2 emission is a hot topic in transportation that will be highlighted in the near future. One question will challenge our conventional modeling and traffic operations: How can the World Container Model be extended to model the effects of CO2-emission cost and what effects on international container flows are expected? The World Container Model (WCM) is used as a fundamental model in this thesis. Due to the threat of climate change, changes in energy policy and so on, the future circumstances of container flows are less certain. The World Container Model (WCM) has been developed as an efficient tool to analyze possible shifts in future container transport demand and the impacts of relevant transport policies. It is a strategic model for the movement of containers on a global scale and predicts yearly container flows over the world’s shipping routes. However, the WCM does not take into account the effects of CO2 emission, which is not the expected model that operators want. The effects of CO2 emission in the transport process, especially the costs, play a more and more important role in the consideration of international container transport. During the process of choosing transport routes, there are some relationships with the effects of emission. That is to say, before transport routes are chosen, not only the cost of the transport but also the environmental effects will be taken into account in this thesis research. (Liao, Lu, & Tseng, Carbon dioxide emissions and inland container transport in Taiwan, 2011) In other words, an extended WCM is designed and developed that takes into account the costs of CO2 emission. The new model offers a desirable contribution that provides insight into a range of new possible structures of global trade patterns as well as consequences for the transportation system. The first part of the main research question is answered first. The World Container Model has been extended with a new scenario executed in the model. This new scenario is designed to add the cost of CO2 emission into the cost of travel time and transfer. There are three important factors in the function: maritime (0.025 euro per TUE), hinterland (0.57 euro per TEU) and transfer. During the process of calculation, these factors are changed by adding the respective unit cost of the corresponding CO2 emission (during maritime and hinterland transport, at terminal). In this way, the unit cost per container move increase. Then the effects of CO2 emission should be visible from the outcomes of the model. With this extended World Container Model, the second part of the main research question can be answered. From the outcomes, the effects of CO2 emission cost on international container flows can be analyzed. The outcomes reveal that the competitiveness of ports on a global scale changes. It is noteworthy that some ports, like Amsterdam, previously with small throughputs and transhipment, experience a new opportunity for development and prosperity. However, some important ports, like the port of Rotterdam, retain their competitiveness thanks to their advantages of geographic location and insistence on policies for controlling emission. In short, due to the impact on the cost of extra CO2 emitted, the routes of maritime container transport have been reselected and throughput has been redistributed. Afterwards, these effects are further analyzed in consideration of two scenarios. Based on the analysis and the scenarios that have been modeled using the extended World Container Model, the applicability of this model and the analysis for the effects of different policies and measures can be tested and verified. Scenario A: slow steaming (the speed of vessels slows down) Scenario B: CO2 price (the price of CO2 emission changes as time passes) For scenario A: most of the European ports retain their attractiveness, which is enhanced by the growth of their throughput. Meanwhile, with the decreasing speed, the throughputs of these ports will increase further. For instance, the port of Antwerp is one of the ports that will probably lose their competitiveness in container transportation in Europe, if the measure of slow steaming shall be taken to reduce the CO2 emission. The similar situation could also occur in the ports of Amsterdam, Le Havre and Bremen. For scenario B: with an increased CO2 tax, most of the European ports like Rotterdam and Hamburg will experience greater chances for development because of the large number of containers being imported and exported. In contrast, the ports of Antwerp, Amsterdam, Le Havre and Bremen show negative outcomes of throughputs from the extended World Container Model. This finding may imply that these ports will face challenges in response to an increase in the CO2 price in the future. In both scenarios, the ports of Antwerp, Amsterdam, Le Havre and Bremen show negative outcomes of throughputs from the extended World Container Model. On the contrary, other ports in Europe, like Rotterdam and Hamburg, retain their competitiveness in future international container traffic. The different situations may occur due to the effects of handling cost. For example, the handling cost at the port of Rotterdam is less expensive than that at the port of Antwerp, mainly because the port of Rotterdam has more efficient handling equipment and better hinterland connection. Finally, the method used to calculate the total volume of CO2 emission is introduced. It is achieved by data modeling on the basics of the extended WCM. The port of Rotterdam, as a case, is studied with analysis of all scenarios and the calculation of CO2 emission. For scenario A: with the speed of vessels slowing down, the throughputs of the port of Rotterdam increase. Beyond doubt, this results in the growth of CO2 emission at the area of the terminal. But for maritime container transport, the total volume of CO2 emission is decreased along with the speed cut, mainly because of the reduction in the number of routes towards and away from the port of Rotterdam (the number of routes to or from Rotterdam decreases from 2,290 to 2,140). For scenario B: with the growth of the CO2 tax, the port of Rotterdam still retains its attractiveness as one of the largest ports in the world. Its throughput and transhipment continue to increase. On the other side, for maritime transport, the CO2 emitted by containers moving towards and away from Rotterdam will be reduced as the CO2 tax increases. To conclude, this report has proposed a method of predicting global container transport that incorporates travel time and traffic CO2 emission in the composite route choice cost function, which provides reasonable suggestions on the effects of a given scenario to reduce the emission. According to the results of the scenarios, the port of Rotterdam will experience positive effects with the growth of throughput and transhipment. When considering increasing CO2 emission in the future, Rotterdam still needs to focus on improving the efficiency of handling at terminal. Such consideration depends on operation performances and terminal configurations. This measure works only over the long term and the costs are high but it is very effective. The impacts and probabilities should be adjusted over time. In response to increasing CO2 emission, the strategy should also focus on energy conservation and renewable energy. These considerations also correspond with the actual situation, which confirms the outcomes of our extended WCM reasonably. The other ports in Europe, like Antwerp, which exhibit negative effects as a result of scenarios, need to be more careful. The extended WCM in this research has shown that it can be used to assess the effects of a wide range of developments. As a strategic tool for policy development, it is able to assist the port to support decisions and take appropriate measures.