The Middle Ground
Spatial Planning Under Uncertainty
Supriya Supriya Krishnan (TU Delft - Architecture and the Built Environment)
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Abstract
Conventional spatial planning deals with hazards by bouncing back to the pre-existing situation. Intensifying manifestations of climate risk lead to unforeseen cascading effects that often surpass the level of protection offered by this type of approach (e.g. Hurricane Katrina) . In this thesis. spatial planning approach is developed that embraces uncertainties, including potential cascading effects. It provides the potential to bounce forward in space to better cope with a disaster.
Critical infrastructure networks (transport, water, energy lines) are interdependent and embedded in space. The proposal spatially understands recovery patterns offered by these networks during a crisis to inform long term growth trajectories of the urban system that can ‘grow with risk’. The principal objective is mainstreaming the role of spatial planning for risk reduction.
The research and design draws from quantitative conclusions of engineering, transport and seismic studies in the context of resilience planning. A spatial disaster event chain is proposed based on theories of complex networks and cascading effects. Risks are projected in space to simulate evacuation behavior on road networks using ArcGIS Network Analyst. With spatial reconfiguration as a central aim, ‘urban design’ iterations form a principal research component for an aggregate understanding of risks in space. The test case utilized in the San Francisco Bay which is at risk of a sea level rise by 2100 and is a hotbed of seismic activity.
Understanding recovery patterns due to incremental risk on infrastructure helps derive the gradient of spatial vulnerability. This informs the ‘critical web’ of the urban region to reconfigure land management and density distribution. A coherent spatial assessment framework is established to identify the ‘middle ground’ that absorbs intensive growth and vulnerable sites that must transition for better adaptivity.
The research highlights lack of cohesion in planning practice to pursue long term implementation strategies such as resilience in land use management, looking beyond building back’ and investing in incremental gain models that grow with risk .It aims to address this vital knowledge gap between engineering simulations and planning in the real world and how we can build a framework to sync them for long range risk reduction.
In conclusion, the project acknowledges risk in space and finds ways to sustain life in the light of urgencies.