From Potential to Purchase: Investment Attractiveness of Hydrogen Trucks
An operator-centred study in heavy-duty road freight
J.M. Brouwer (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
J.A. Annema – Mentor (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
J.M. Vleugel – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
Kees Verbogt – Mentor (Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat)
Niels Achterberg – Mentor (Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat)
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Abstract
Decarbonising heavy-duty road freight requires freight transport operators to invest in alternative drivetrains under rapidly changing technological, economic and policy conditions. Although existing research provides substantial insight into the techno-economic and system-level feasibility of hydrogen trucks, less is known about how operators evaluate hydrogen as an actual fleet investment. This study examines how freight transport operators assess hydrogen trucks in heavy-duty road freight. A qualitative research design combined literature and desk research with 24 semi-structured interviews, including 18 freight transport operators and six secondary stakeholders, followed by a descriptive questionnaire among all 18 operators. The operator sample covered small, medium-sized and large firms across a range of freight activities and levels of zero-emission engagement. The findings show that hydrogen is evaluated as a potential but currently conditional zero-emission option. Economic viability forms the dominant barrier, particularly because of high vehicle costs, high and uncertain hydrogen prices, low transport margins and limited customer willingness to pay. Battery-electric trucks are currently perceived as the more concrete zero-emission alternative, while hydrogen is mainly considered for operations where battery-electric deployment may face limitations related to distance, payload, charging time, grid capacity, utilisation or operational flexibility. Infrastructure, long-term policy confidence, firm capacity and uncertainty further shape investment decisions. Overall, hydrogen is evaluated as a relative and use-case-dependent investment option rather than as a mainstream zero-emission solution.