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Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

Journal Article (2017)
Authors

Delphine Clara Zemp (Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin)

Carl Friedrich Schleussner (Climate Analytics, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung)

Henrique M J Barbosa (Universidade de São Paulo)

Marina Hirota (Campus Universitario Reitor Joao David Ferreira Lima, University of Campinas)

Vincent Montade (Georg-August-University)

Gilvan Sampaio (National Institute for Space Research (INPE))

Arie Staal (Wageningen University & Research)

Lan Wang-Erlandsson (TU Delft - Water Resources, Stockholm University)

Anja Rammig (Technische Universität München, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, University of Göttingen)

Research Group
Water Resources
Copyright
© 2017 Delphine Clara Zemp, Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Henrique M J Barbosa, Marina Hirota, Vincent Montade, Gilvan Sampaio, Arie Staal, L. Wang-Erlandsson, Anja Rammig
To reference this document use:
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681
More Info
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Publication Year
2017
Language
English
Copyright
© 2017 Delphine Clara Zemp, Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Henrique M J Barbosa, Marina Hirota, Vincent Montade, Gilvan Sampaio, Arie Staal, L. Wang-Erlandsson, Anja Rammig
Research Group
Water Resources
Volume number
8
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681
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Abstract

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.