Efficient Bayesian calibration of aerodynamic wind turbine models using surrogate modeling
B. Sanderse (Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI))
V.V. Dighe (Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica (CWI), TU Delft - Team Jan-Willem van Wingerden)
Koen Boorsma (TNO)
Gerard Schepers (TNO)
More Info
expand_more
Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.
Abstract
This paper presents an efficient strategy for the Bayesian calibration of parameters of aerodynamic wind turbine models. The strategy relies on constructing a surrogate model (based on adaptive polynomial chaos expansions), which is used to perform both parameter selection using global sensitivity analysis and parameter calibration with Bayesian inference. The effectiveness of this approach is shown in two test cases: calibration of airfoil polars based on the measurements from the DANAERO MW experiments and calibration of five yaw model parameters based on measurements on the New MEXICO turbine in yawed conditions. In both cases, the calibrated models yield results much closer to the measurement data, and in addition they are equipped with an estimate of the uncertainty in the predictions.
help_outline