Dynamic MFA Modelling on Individual Building Level

Abstract

This research delves into the challenging task of exploring secondary materials supply from existing building stocks, crucial for sustainable resource management in the face of climate change. Focused on Hamburg, Germany, the study employs a unique combination of GIS-based bottom-up building stock analysis and dynamic Material Flow Analysis (dMFA) at the individual building level. Unlike previous studies, this approach specifically explores the dynamics of single buildings based on their unique characteristics, such as function and building age. The research explores the question of to what extent Hamburg’s construction sector can meet its material demand for stock maintenance through secondary materials until 2075. The study emphasizes the often-overlooked impact of regional and local dynamics, making Hamburg an ideal case study. The city’s lack of policies regarding primary material consumption in construction adds relevance to the investigation. By addressing five sub-research questions, the study comprehensively examines current material stocks, future outflows caused by demolition and renovation, future inflows for maintenance of the building stock and replacement construction, and the secondary material potential of outflows. The methodology involves quantifying material masses through GIS analysis and the application of material intensities for different building types and age cohorts. The obtained results feed into the dynamic MFA model. Recommendations arising from the findings include preparing for efficient brick recycling, developing storage concepts for secondary materials based on the determined spatio-temporal characteristics of outflows and initiating policy discussions on reducing primary material consumption in construction. This research not only contributes to the field of Industrial Ecology by extending the methodology for material stock and flow research on the local level but also has practical implications. Stakeholders in Hamburg, including policymakers, urban planners, and waste operators, can leverage the developed methodologies and results for informed decision-making. The study provides a blueprint for future research in other urban regions, showcasing the potential of openly available cadastre data and emphasizing the importance of addressing the complexities of material flows at a granular level.