A site-specific classification of typhoon-induced coastal hazards based on compound extreme waves and storm surges
Dong Jiing Doong (National Cheng Kung University)
Yu Chen Lee (National Cheng Kung University, TU Delft - Mechanical Engineering)
Leng Hsuan Tseng (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)
Ying Chih Chen (National Cheng Kung University)
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Abstract
Accurate estimation of coastal hazards requires considering the dependence between extreme wave heights and storm surges particularly in regions affected by typhoons. This study analyzes the joint probability of these variables using approximately 14 years of field observations from Taiwan. An event-based sampling method was adopted, utilizing a new definition of the typhoon influence period to isolate extreme events. The dependence structure was modeled using bivariate copulas with the Gumbel–Hougaard (GH) copula and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) marginal distributions. These were integrated with a Poisson model to form a Compound Extreme Value Distribution (CEVD). The results indicate that design values derived from joint return periods provide a more realistic assessment of risk compared to univariate methods. Furthermore, a new typhoon-induced coastal hazard classification scheme based on these joint probabilities is proposed, providing a more effective tool for coastal hazard warning and assessment.
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